Crisis or Opportunity : Climate change impacts and the Philippines

Weather can change very rapidly from day to day and from year to year, even with an unchanging climate. Climate is the long-term average of such weather conditions. With climate change, such changes in the weather can go from one extreme to another. The Philippines runs the risk of being affected by more frequent and severe El Niño and La Niña events resulting in droughts and floods, respectively. More intense precipitation events due to increased southwest monsoon activities and severe storm occurrences have been taking place lately, causing massive landslides and flash floods. The resulting casualties and damage to property exacerbate the misery and predicament of an already over-burdened populace.

THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT (IPCC-TAR, 2001) – FINDINGS AND PROJECTIONS.

The distinguishable signals of climate change are among its robust findings, i.e. that the earth is definitely warming; that globally, the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year in the instrumental record (1861-2000); that the global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C; that global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 meters during the same period; and that rainfall may have increased by 0.2% to 0.3% per decade over the tropical (10°N to 10°S) land areas. Such signals of a changing climate are already evident in the Philippines as our limited data (1960 to present) show that the increasing trends in temperature, sea level rise and extreme climate event occurrences are consistent with the above global trends. The IPCC Report explicitly states with more confidence that “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” Human activities have increased substantially the atmospheric concentrations of the main anthropogenic greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial era. The highest recorded levels in the 1990s were primarily attributed to the combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture, and land-use changes. The current rate of increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) alone of 31% since 1750 is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years.

Carbon dioxide concentrations, globally averaged surface temperature, and sea level are projected to increase under all IPCC emissions scenarios during the 21st century. Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) due to fossil fuel burning are virtually certain to be dominant during the period. There will be an increase in globally averaged surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8°C. This is about two to ten times larger than the observed warming over the 20th century. Global mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 meters between the years 1990 and 2100, but with significant regional variations.

REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS (ASIA)

Climate change will exacerbate water shortages in many water-scarce areas of the world. Runoff and water availability may decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia. Decreases in agricultural productivity and aquaculture will ensue due to thermal and water stress, sea-level rise, floods and droughts, and tropical cyclones would diminish food security in many countries of Asia. Human health would be threatened by possible increased exposure to vector-borne infectious diseases and heat stress in parts of Asia. Accelerated sea level rise will expose many human settlements to increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion and saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources. Tens of millions of people living in deltas, in low-lying coastal areas of Asia will face risk of displacement. Coral reefs would be negatively affected by bleaching and by reduced calcification rates. Tourism, an important source of income and foreign exchange for many islands, would face severe disruption from climate change and sea-level rise. Adaptive capacity of human systems is low and vulnerability is high in the developing countries of Asia.

EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS

IPCC-TAR reported with high confidence that extreme climate events/variability, such as, floods, droughts, forest fires, and tropical cyclones have increased in temperate and tropical Asia. The warm episodes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena have been more frequent, persistent and intense since the mid-1970s, compared with the previous 100 years. This IPCC finding has manifested itself in the Philippines through the more frequent occurrence of severe El Niño and La Niña events, as well as, deadly and damaging typhoons and other severe storms; floods, flash floods, landslides, drought, forest fires, etc. There were 5 La Niña episodes and 7 El Niño episodes from 1970 to 2000 compared to only 3 La Niña episodes and 2 El Niño episodes from 1950 to 1970. The strong warm (El Niño) events were in 1972-73, 1982-83,1997-98, while the strong cold (La Niña) events were in 1973-74,1988-89 and 1998-99 (CAB T.P. No. 2001-7). The most common extreme climate events with significant economic and social impacts in the Philippines are tropical cyclone occurrences of which typhoons are the strongest and most destructive. Several typhoon extremes were observed from 1990 to 2004. The highest and lowest frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence, the strongest typhoon, the 2 most destructive typhoons, deadliest storm and the typhoon that registered the highest 24-hour record rainfall occurred during this period (Amadore, L.A., 2005). There were seven (7) extreme tropical cyclone/southwest monsooninduced extreme events from 1991 to late 2004, namely, the Ormoc Catastrophe, 1991; Cherry Hill Tragedy, 1999; Payatas Garbage-slide, 2000; Baguio-La Trinidad landslides, 2001; Camiguin flashfloods, 2001; Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster, 2003; and the Aurora floods, 2004. These extreme events have one thing in common – persistent torrential rains, causing landslides and flash floods, killing people and destroying properties and the environment along its path. Other extreme events were the great central Luzon floods of 1972, probably the worst damaging flood in Philippine history and a precursor to the recent spate of extreme events; the southern Mindanao drought of 1998, resulting in near starvation and the Indonesia forest fires, both associated with the1997-98 El Niño event; landslides and lahar flows caused by extreme precipitation (rainfall) events

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE PHILIPPINES

The sector most affected by climate change, so far, is agriculture and food security. The sharpest fall in agricultural productions are experienced during strong El Niño events and after the occurrence of severe tropical cyclones. However, increases in rice and corn productions are attributed to favorable rainfall conditions during La Nina years. The highest typhoon damage was 1.17% of GDP and 4.21% of agriculture.

In the health sector, many of the biological organisms linked to the spread of infectious diseases are especially influenced by the fluctuations in climate variables. Among other factors, dengue fever and malaria are sensitive to such climate parameters as temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. Other climate-related diseases like cholera have been associated with extremes of precipitation, droughts and floods (Relox, N.A., 1998). The climate change impacts on coastal zones and marine ecosystems observed in 1998 were massive coral bleaching in various reefs throughout the Philippines (Arceo, H.O. et al., 2001) caused by the elevated sea temperature during the severe 1997-98 ENSO episode. Fish kills and high mortality of cultured giant clams in ocean nurseries were also observed. Severe red tide outbreaks also occurred after the strong El Niño periods. The worst incidence of red tide in Manila Bay occurred in 1992, another El Niño period.

PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOS ON EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS DURING THE 21ST CENTURY:

More intense precipitation events over many areas in Asia; increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, mean and peak precipitation intensities; intensified droughts and floods associated with El Niño/La Niña events; increased Asian summer monsoon precipitation; and more hot days are expected. Corresponding severe impacts on human and natural systems are to be expected (IPCC, 2001). Recent studies suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential (Emmanuel K., 2005) A climate change timetable scenario shows the impacts of climate change multiplying rapidly from increased extreme events to extinction of species and collapse of ecosystems as average global temperature goes up, towards 10C above levels before the industrial revolution in the next 25 years, then to 20C in the middle of this century, and then 30C during the second half of the century (Hare, B., 2005; McCarthy, M., 2005).

Conclusions and Recommendations:

SIGNALS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Several extreme weather/climate events are occurring worldwide lately: Hurricane Katrina, in the USA, massive flooding in India and China, extensive, severe drought in Thailand, heat waves in Europe, etc. In the Philippines and the Asian region, the ENSO phenomena and the associated flood, drought, forest fire, severe storms and heavy precipitations-causing landslides and flash floods, have become more frequent and severe during the last 20 to 30 years. Yet, attribution of such extreme events to climate change is virtually impossible due to lack of data. Current scientific evidence strongly suggests, however, that hurricanes/typhoons tend to become more destructive as ocean temperatures rise. The IPCC findings, backed by long-term worldwide observations, confirming the recent increases in extreme events should at least be treated as verifiable signals of climate variability/change.

On Vulnerability assessment and adaptation measures. A municipal-level, GIS-based vulnerability assessments on sea level rise, agriculture, water resources, health and coastal and marine resources should be conducted nationwide following closely the Common Methodology of the IPCC. From here, more focused and realistic adaptation measures can be formulated.

On (adaptation) and response strategies. Improve further the accuracy and effectiveness of the tropical cyclone warning and climate change monitoring systems and enhance further the preparedness, prevention and mitigation aspects of disaster management.

On mitigation strategies and measures. In order to strengthen the mitigation programs/activities of the country, it is strongly recommended that we participate actively in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto protocol, particularly small-scale CDM project activities on renewal energy and energy efficiency. It is also essential that the country adopt a target in generating power from new, renewable resources such as solar energy, wind power and modern biomass. Securing a target of 10% from new, renewable energy coming from sources such as solar power, wind energy and modern biomass by 2010 is an essential start while putting strong brakes on coal-fired development is just as crucial.

On climate change awareness. There is an urgent need for an effective and sustained program to enhance the level of climate change awareness among policy/decision makers, the various stakeholders, the media, students and the academe, the entertainment media, and the general public or the’ masa’, etc. for their own empowerment.

Authors: Greenpeace Philippines
Date published: November 03, 2005